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What determines the price of petrol?
Petrol and diesel prices in the UK are influenced by a range of global and domestic factors. Meaning the cost of fuel at the pump can - and often does - change frequently.
One of the biggest drivers is the global price of crude oil. When oil prices rise due to increased demand or supply disruptions, fuel prices in the UK typically follow.
Exchange rates also play a key role. As oil is traded in US dollars - a weaker pound can make petrol and diesel more expensive for UK motorists.
On top of this, fuel duty and VAT make up a large proportion of the price you pay. While retailers adjust pump prices based on wholesale fuel costs and local competition.
In short, if oil prices increase or the pound loses strength, drivers across the UK are likely to see higher petrol and diesel prices.
Average prices are accurate as of —.
In the below graph, you can see the average cost of petrol and the average price of diesel over a 52 week period in the UK.
It is an interesting view on how the cost of fuel will fluctuate across the year. All data is sourced from official government statistics.
Diesel prices have climbed to their highest level of the past year. According to the latest government figures, the average price of a litre of diesel reached 195.53p in the week of 21 September 2026.
That's an increase of more than 50p per litre since early March, when diesel averaged around 141p. It also passes the previous 2026 peak seen in April.
At today's prices, filling a typical 55-litre family car with diesel now costs over £107.
Petrol has followed a similar path, rising to above 170p per litre over the same period.
The main cause is the one covered above: the global price of crude oil. Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted supply chains and pushed oil prices up, and UK pump prices have followed.
The impact goes beyond the forecourt. Lorries and vans run largely on diesel, so higher costs are likely to feed through to the price of everyday goods and services.
| Date | Petrol (ppl) | Diesel (ppl) | Difference | Weekly Change (Petrol) | Weekly Change (Diesel) |
|---|
Price data is sourced from official data on the gov.uk website
Central to most of this is that retailers pay a wholesale price. This in turn fluctuates based on:
While some factors, like VAT and fuel duty, remain relatively stable, others – think crude oil prices and currency exchange rates - can prove to be the most unpredictable.
All of this is why fuel prices constantly rise and fall.
Fuel duty is an indirect tax levied by the UK government on road fuels and some other fuels. It is included directly in the cost of fuel at the pumps.
Every litre of petrol and diesel includes fuel duty. For a long time, this was fixed at 57.95p per litre.
In March 2022, the government introduced a temporary 5p per litre cut, reducing the rate to 52.95p per litre. This reduced rate is still in place today.
The cut had been due to be reversed in stages, starting with a 1p rise on 1 September 2026. However, in May 2026 the government confirmed the 5p cut would be extended until the end of 2026, meaning the planned September and December increases will no longer go ahead.
No new timetable has been set for reversing the cut. So for the rest of 2026, the duty on every litre stays at 52.95p. Any changes you see at the pump will come from factors such as oil prices and exchange rates.

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