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What determines the price of petrol?
Petrol and diesel prices in the UK are influenced by a range of global and domestic factors. Meaning the cost of fuel at the pump can - and often does - change frequently.
One of the biggest drivers is the global price of crude oil. When oil prices rise due to increased demand or supply disruptions, fuel prices in the UK typically follow.
Exchange rates also play a key role. As oil is traded in US dollars - a weaker pound can make petrol and diesel more expensive for UK motorists.
On top of this, fuel duty and VAT make up a large proportion of the price you pay. While retailers adjust pump prices based on wholesale fuel costs and local competition.
In short, if oil prices increase or the pound loses strength, drivers across the UK are likely to see higher petrol and diesel prices.
Average prices are accurate as of —.
In the below graph, you can see the average cost of petrol and the average price of diesel over a 52 week period in the UK.
It is an interesting view on how the cost of fuel will fluctuate across the year. All data is sourced from official government statistics.
| Date | Petrol (ppl) | Diesel (ppl) | Difference | Weekly Change (Petrol) | Weekly Change (Diesel) |
|---|
Price data is sourced from official data on the gov.uk website
Central to most of this is that retailers pay a wholesale price. This in turn fluctuates based on:
While some factors, like VAT and fuel duty, remain relatively stable, others – think crude oil prices and currency exchange rates - can prove to be the most unpredictable.
All of this is why fuel prices constantly rise and fall.
Fuel duty is an indirect tax levied by the UK government on road fuels and some other fuels. It is included directly in the cost of fuel at the pumps.
Every litre of petrol and diesel includes fuel duty. For a long time, this was fixed at 57.95p per litre.
In March 2022, the government introduced a temporary 5p per litre cut, reducing the rate to 52.95p per litre. This reduced rate is still in place today.
Following recent government updates, the 5p cut has been extended until 31 August 2026. After this, fuel duty is set to increase gradually between September 2026 and March 2027, returning to its previous level.

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